Deloitte has released its latest report including tech predictions for 2017, and points to how machine learning and autonomous driving, in particular, are poised to transform our everyday experiences.
Deloitte's 2017 Canadian Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Predictions purports that over the next 12 months, more than three-million smartphones, accounting for over a third of all sold this year, will have some form of machine learning capabilities. Over time, such capabilities will extend to "tens of millions" or more drones, tablets, cars, virtual or augmented reality devices, medical tools, Internet of Things (IoT) devices, and "unforeseen new technologies."
"Machine learning will see everyday tasks become even faster and more effortless," says Anders McKenzie, Partner and National TMT Leader for Deloitte in Canada. "So simple, that Canadians may not even realize their mobile devices have in fact learned these new capabilities.
"Not only will machine learning revolutionize how we conduct simple tasks through our mobile devices," he adds, "but it will also improve the safety of Canadians through other platforms, such as better autonomous vehicles, responding to disasters and more resilient to cyberattacks."
Looking five years ahead, Deloitte predicts that by 2022, fatalities from motor vehicle accidents in Canada will have dropped by more than 300 annually, a 16% decline from levels seen in 2017. The single greatest factor in this decline will be automatic emergency braking (AEB) technologies, where onboard sensors scan the road ahead and can hit the brakes faster than a human driver can. Deloitte notes that AEB will be so widely adopted, affordable, preferred by consumers, and successful at saving lives that it may even slow down the movement towards full self-driving cars.
"This year will mark the beginning of a significant uptake in automatic braking technologies, a trend with an unparalleled potential effect, saving the lives of Canadians," adds Duncan Stewart, Director of TMT Research at Deloitte in Canada and co-author of the global report. "We could see the adoption of autonomous vehicles occur more slowly than expected, as automatic braking technologies provide an alternative option for Canadians who are attracted to the increased safety that they offer, but also still desire to control and operate their own vehicles."
Additionally, Deloitte predicts that this year, Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attacks, a form of cyberattack, will become larger in scale, harder to mitigate, and more frequent. There will be on average a terabit/s (Tbit/s) scale attack per month, over 10 million attacks in total, and an average attack size of between 1.25 and 1.5 gigabits per second (Gbit/s). This escalation in the DDoS threat is largely due to the growing number of IoT devices, online availability of malware methodologies which allow relatively unskilled attackers to corral insecure IoT devices and use them to launch attacks, and access to ever higher bandwidth speeds.
Meanwhile, the active base of fingerprint reader-equipped devices will top one billion for the first time in early 2017 (10 million in Canada), with each active sensor used an average of 30 times a day, implying over 10 trillion aggregate presses globally over the year. With the rapid pace of access and adoption of this technology, says Deloitte, the challenge is to determine which additional applications could use fingerprint readers and other biometric inputs to provide rapid and secure authentication.
Not surprisingly, Deloitte foresees a decline in tablet sales, predicted to hit 165 million units, down approximately 10% from 182 million in 2016. Instead, consumer devices that seem to be preferred over tablets for similar activities include computers, smartphones, and TVs.
In 2017, Deloitte believes that vinyl will continue its resurgence, approaching US$1 billion globally in revenues for all vinyl related products. New vinyl revenues and units are likely to enjoy a seventh consecutive year of double-digit growth in 2017, comprising 6% of forecast global music revenues of about US$15 billion in 2017. However, vinyl is unlikely to ever be music's major growth or profit engine, with the future of music squarely focused on digital, says the firm.
As of 2022, at least a quarter of all human and machine uses of precision digital navigation will include an indoor portion or be for an entirely indoor journey, compared to less than 5% of all uses in 2017. Being able to locate people and objects when indoors will be transformative, and is likely to benefit most vertical sectors, and have impacts on government, business, and consumers alike.
On the mobile side, Deloitte believes that significant steps toward the deployment of 5G technology, the fifth generation of cellular networks, will take place in 2017. This will provide significantly higher speeds, lower latency, and support for low-power low-bitrate IoT devices and sensors.
For TVs, Deloitte only looks at TV advertising, and suggests that flat "is the new up," and that spending will remain steady since streaming does not have the same mass appeal for advertisers.
By the end of 2018, Deloitte predicts that spending on IT-as-a-Service for data centres, software, and services will surpass US$547 billion worldwide, up from US$361 billion in 2016. Although flexible consumption-based business models will not be ubiquitous by 2018, over a third of all IT spending (35%), they will exceed half a trillion dollars and be growing rapidly. This shift will begin to evolve how the IT industry markets, sells and buys technology across businesses worldwide.
The 2016 Mazda 6 is just one of many new cars that feature automatic emergency braking (AEB), a technology that Deloitte predicts will help contribute to a predicted significant drop in motor vehicle accident fatalities this year, and beyond.